Where we are year-to-date, my prediction for the last quarter of 2019, and what this all means for buyers and sellers

Resources:

• Download this issue of the Hatch Neighborhood Report to see stats on neighborhood level.
• Check out the data below more interesting info for August 2019 vs. August 2018. 
• Click here to read the transcript from the video.
• Are you curious what your home could be worth? Get a quick market analysis, or contact me for a complimentary, customized analysis.

More Market Stats

Single Family Detached | August 2019 vs. August 2018

Attached| July 2019 vs. July 2018

Transcript

Hi there. This is Michelle Hatch with Beacham & Company REALTORS® in Atlanta, Georgia, and this week, I have your August 2019 housing market report.

Last month, I reported that we were seeing a softer side in 2019 and that we expected the rate of increase of appreciation for home sale prices to slow down this year. And definitely last month’s statistics really supported that. In August, we have a much of the same information that we’ve been reporting the entire year.

Single-family Detached Homes

For the area covered by the Hatch Neighborhood Report*, we have sales volume down again 1% year- over-year. Sales volume has been lagging 2018 all year, not only in the sub-markets that I follow in HNR, but in the Atlanta Metro region as a whole. Median sales price up 3% from this time last year.

For the five county Metro area, sales volume is down 2%, and the median sales price for single-family detached homes is up 4%.

Condos

With affordability an issue, we’ve seen a lot of buyers opting to go with either a condo or a townhouse instead of a single-family home. And so I’d like to report those numbers too. For the 25 sub markets I report on in HNR, sales volume for attached homes is down 13% YOY.

Last year, people were really finding a lot of inventory in condos. So what they couldn’t afford in-town in a single-family home, they could afford in a condo. Well sales volume has taken a dramatic drop from this time last year, which is driving up prices. The median sales prices are up 4%.
In the Atlanta metro area as a whole, we’re also experiencing the same kind of trend. Sales volume is down 5% YOY and the median sales price for attach homes is up 5% YOY.

Pending Sales Could Mean Bump in Activity

With affordability and lagging sales volume continuing to be an issue, we were thinking that 2019 would be a much softer market than 2018. But when we look at pending sales, we see a different story.

As of this filming, we had nearly 400 pending homes for sale on the market. Pending sales are homes that are under contract and are heading to the closing table later this year. Because we have nearly 400 pending homes sales closing soon, we’re going to see a spike in sales volume in November, 2019.

Low Mortgage Rates

It’s no secret of what’s driving this demand, and why buyers are jumping into the market. It’s the low mortgage interest rates. As of today [September 23, 2019], interest rates are sitting at 3.79%. This time last year we were talking about interest rates reaching up to 5%. So, we saw a dip in sales volume.

The average interest rate for August, 2019 was 3.59%. We haven’t seen those types of interest rates since 2016 and as you can see [in chart] in 2016 when we had low interest rates, we had a surge in the number of mortgage applications. And we’re definitely seeing that true here again, with a mortgage interest rates so low at 3.59%, we have a spike in the mortgage applications.

We’re definitely going see this play out through the end of the year. And I don’t think that 2019 is going to end as softly as we thought. This is exactly what I’m predicting is going to happen in our area and in the Metro area as a whole: we’re [the housing market] going to end strong. Definitely in November, 2019 with all those pending sales, closing out, driving up sales prices and sales volume.

What this means for sellers

If you are considering putting your house on the market, now is the perfect time. Buyers are looking and there’s a bigger buyer pool now than there was last month, or the month before.

What this means for buyers

For buyers, this means that, while you have still an inventory problem, low inventory, your borrowing costs are whole lower than they would be if you purchased this time last year. So, you can afford a little bit more house because your borrowing costs are so low.

I hope you found this helpful! Please subscribe and like my video. That way, other people can find my videos and learn more about the Atlanta housing market.

Best,

Michelle

*The Hatch Neighborhood Report compares year-to-date sales data to the previous year to measure the health of the housing market of Buckhead, the Upper Westside, and the surrounding areas; and compares that sales activity to the metro area as a whole. Reporting sales activity for the year provides a more accurate measure of the health of the housing marketing, and allows us to identify top-performing neighborhoods.